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4/12/07
Oil Drilling Deception, 4/21/11. "Drill Here, Drill Now" for more oil to the U.S. market? Don't be silly. Since 2005 oil exports rose by 483M barrels while imports fell by 377M barrels. The result: net petroleum (imports minus exports) coming into the U.S. was 25% less in 2010 than in 2005. Market manipulation plunders public resources for private gain.
Petroleum Prevarication, 5/10/08. Updated 3/39/11: U.S. petroleum exports are about 11% of imports [UPDATE: NOW in 2010 it's 24%!!! A 150% increase over 3003!]. Want to increase U.S. oil supply by 11% [24%]? Stop exporting it. Drill in ANWR? No; that oil would likely be exported.
'Free Market' Fundamentalism, 2/13/11. It's not either "free market" or "government". It's both-and. What's called the "free market" does not solve all problems.
Colorado Springs: A Broken Region, 10/26/10. While it's true that Colorado Springs government is broken, it's worse than that. The whole region is broken; its policies are structurally unsound. Here's why:
Fiscal Deficits! Who's Responsible?, 8/31/10. Fiscal deficits were exploding and 4.3M jobs had been lost before Obama took office. Fiscal debt as of Sept 09, 8 months after Obama took office, was $11.9 trillion. "Trade" deficits subtracted $5.8 trillion from GDP from 2000 through May 2010. Democratic tax increases on the wealthy led to a boom and Republican tax cuts for the wealthy and not-paid-for spending led to a bust. The economic downturn, Bush tax cuts and wars in Afghanistan and Iraq explain virtually the entire deficit over the next ten years.
Jobs & 'Trade' Data Update Jun10, 8/2/10 Irrational belief in the infallibility of the "free market" and "free trade" has led to devastating offshoring of good-paying manufacturing & IT jobs and resulted in enormous "trade" deficits. This has undermined the US economy and is the root cause of the economic crisis. This documents the losses & deficits.
Colorado Springs Jobs: As of Jun 2010 Colorado Springs has lost over 54% of its Mfg & IT jobs since Jan01; that's 14,300 Mfg & 7,800 IT jobs lost. Computer & Electronic Products Mfg jobs are down 69% since Apr01. Overall there are 19,500 fewer non-farm jobs than in Nov 07 ... about the same number of jobs as in July 1999.
Colorado Jobs: CO has lost 155,800 jobs since May08. The number of CO jobs now is less than the number of jobs in May 2000.
National Jobs: There are 7.4M fewer jobs than in Nov07. That's 1.3M better than the Dec09 loss of 8.7M jobs. "Official" (U-3) unemployment was 9.5%, with the more realistic expanded measure of U-6 at 16.5%. But 'real' unemployment is now ~24%. Jun10 U-2, job losers, was at a yearly rate of 5.9% of the civilian labor force (1.17M lost their jobs in June), compared to 6.7% in Oct09.
Trade Deficit: A major drag on GDP and employment is the continuing offshoring of jobs as evidenced by the again increasing trade deficit. From 2000 through May 2010 the cumulative trade deficit (trade debt) has been $5.8 trillion; that's how much GDP has been reduced by this insane policy. Since 1980 it's $7.7 trillion of debt to other nations. There's no possible amount of stimulus that can make up for this drain on GDP.
ATP Trade: The Advanced Technology Products trade deficit is $56.6B/yr projected based on the Jan - May data. In 1991, the U.S. had a $38.4B ATP surplus. The loss of high-tech jobs and intellectual capital has been enormous and continues despite the economic downturn.
Jobs & 'Trade' Data Update Oct09, 11/19/09. Economic crisis root cause: massive offshoring of good-paying manufacturing & IT jobs. Economy: increasingly unstable as U.S. wages systematically undermined. As of Sep09 Colorado Springs lost over 50% of Mfg & IT jobs since Jan01 with overall jobs lost at 14,600 since Nov 07. Colorado has lost 120,000 jobs since Aug08. Nationally in Oct09: 8.4M fewer jobs than in Nov07; "official" (U-3) unemployment rose to 10.2%, with the more realistic expanded measure of U-6 at 17.5%. But 'real' unemployment is now ~25%, approaching Great Depression levels. U-2, job losers, increased to 6.9% of the civilian labor force.
Taxes: 2C or Not 2C?, 10/27/09. Sean Paige's appointment to City Council wasn't just a jolt ("Turn the Paige" 10/22); it adds insult to injury. It's exactly libertarian ideology that's led to Colorado Springs' economic collapse. This explains how.
Single-Payer Health Insurance, 10/25/09. Privatized health insurance without universal coverage doesn't work. Why? First, it's fatally flawed because of adverse selection. Added to that are a bunch of other reasons. When privatized there's less U.S. innovation, higher costs, personal bankruptcy, death, corporations between patients and doctors, obscene CEO pay, and high overhead & profit. Because the new law keeps private insurance companies, it isn't what we need, but it is Constitutional.
Response to 'The Commons: What Tragedy? by Wilton D. Alston' 8/12/09. A libertarian praises the right of the "free market" to destroy a common resource: "Why do these specific fish need to be preserved? Who gets to decide? How do they know? Who should pay because of it? Why?" It's this kind of "thinking" that made Easter Island uninhabitable and will do the same to the planet, if not successfully opposed.
From Growth to Overshoot & Collapse 8/13/09. This reviews structures associated with exponential growth, limits to growth, & overshoot & collapse. In this last case, we have experienced ocean fish depletion and making Easter Island uninhabitable. We're doing the same to Earth itself.
Jobs & 'Trade' Data Update Jun09, 8/2/09. Economic crisis root cause: massive offshoring of good-paying manufacturing and IT jobs. Economy: increasingly unstable as U.S. wages systematically undermined. Colorado Springs lost 47.2% of mfg jobs as of May, nationally 32.8% as of Jun. As of May, Colorado has lost 96,700 jobs since Aug 08 and Colorado Springs has lost 12,400 jobs since Nov 07. Nationally there are 6.5M fewer jobs than in Nov 07. U.S. "official" (U-3) unemployment rose to 9.5% in May, with the more realistic expanded measure of U-6 at 16.5%. But 'real' unemployment is now ~23%, approaching Great Depression levels. U-2, job losers, remains at 6.2% in Jun 09. [Added: Who's responsible for how much of projected deficits.]
Data on Income & Tax Distributions, 7/17/09. Shows CBO data on the distribution of income & describes the policies that drive most of the population into poverty. Relevant to the proposal to tax the Top 1% to 7% to pay for public option health insurance. Appended to Wealth Happens on the dynamic driving the concentration of wealth. From 1979 to 2006, real income of the lowest quintile (Bottom 20%) increased by 11%. The real income of the Top 1% grew by 256% ... and they already made 23X as much in 1979; in 2006 it's 73X as much. It's not that those with lower incomes are overtaxed; it's that they're underpaid thanks to wage suppression and policies that distribute income to the top.
Health Care Dynamics, 2/17/03. Topic of Current Interest -- The death spiral of our current, fundamentally free-market-based, health care system is due to our focus on the individual, rather than the whole. The reasons are described in this paper and the structure is described in detail in the linked document. Any approach to addressing the health care crisis that doesn't deal with adverse selection is doomed.
Economic Development: What to do locally? 5/29/09. This article uses an economic development model to describe what can be done locally to respond to massive regional manufacturing and IT job losses. The same principles apply to the U.S. economy.
I Can Disprove 'Progressive' Anti-think, 3/28/09. A libertarian ignores reality, blames "free market" failures on government, and "disproves" what he refers to as "so-called 'progressive' anti-think" by making a false analogy between progressively taxing income and progressively taxing intelligence & performance. I describe the "path dependence" dynamic that makes progressive taxation necessary to avoid extremes of poverty and wealth.
Rep Doug Lamborn on 'Free Trade', 3/16/09. Notes from a meeting 5/30/08 with Rep. Doug Lamborn and NAM on manufacturing, "free trade" and other issues.
Freedom? Liberal vs. Conservative, 3/01/09. Conservatives and libertarians have a limited, and therefore false, view of "freedom". They see those who understand the need to use government to improve peoples' lives as "socialist authoritarians." Such distorted thinking would similarly call gardeners, "socialist authoritarians" comprising a "socialist mob". That's just plain crazy.
Smoot-Hawley Fiction, 2/15/09. Smoot-Hawley tariff "protectionism" is continually being blamed for the Great Depression: "OMG, that would start a trade war and hurt our exports. After all, doncha know that caused the Great Depression?!!!" Trouble is, our enormous trade deficit shows we've been in, and lost, that war. Creating balanced trade and Buy American are perfectly consistent with fundamental economic development principles and are not "protectionism." "Free trade" proponents commit economic treason by perpetrating pro-"free trade" propaganda. Not to put too fine a point on it, they're lying. Here's why it's obvious. And it wasn't FDR's New Deal that prolonged it either.
The 9/22/08 Economic Crisis, 9/24/08, What's at the root of the 9/22/08 economic crisis? An explosion of "trade", fiscal, and personal debt encouraged by government and Federal Reserve policies. Why? Compensation growth has fallen far behind productivity growth. Why? Five factors.
Trade Truth #3: 'Trade' Talking Points, 6/12/08, Here are concise responses for those who wish to be effective in opposing "free trade" rhetoric.
Ignore Externalities, 5/24/08, Some libertarians admit there are positive and negative externalities, but complain that taking them into account would create more harm. That's wrong. They don't believe that in a democracy we can decide what, if anything, to do about them.
Objection to 'Explaining Liberal Principles', 5/20/08, A great example of "conservative" denial of reality that proffers the "simple" as truth and points out the "depth of depravity of liberal 'logical thinking' when it comes to principles."
Petroleum Prevarication, 5/10/08, U.S. petroleum exports are about 11% of imports. Want to increase U.S. oil supply by 11%? Stop exporting it. Drill in ANWR? No; that oil would likely be exported.
Trade Truth #2: The Dollar & The Deficit, 4/27/08, The falling dollar did not increase the rate of goods export growth as pro "free trade" advocates maintain it should. The trade balance was less negative by $50B in 2007 because of increased growth of services exports and decreased growth of goods imports. Oil is a problem, but it's less than 20% of the trade deficit. The petroleum deficit fell in real dollars by $4.6B in 2006 and $3.9B in 2007 despite rising oil prices. There's a major structural problem driving the U.S. toward economic collapse.
Trade Truth #1: The NAFTA Nemesis, 4/18/08, After NAFTA, exports have suffered relative to imports no matter how one looks at the data. "Free trade" fundamentalists totally ignore that imports have slammed exports on all counts: absolute level, growth, and acceleration. The result? Destructive debt that's sinking the dollar and the U.S. economy.
Collectives, 4/2/08, Libertarians say that any idea of a collective dimension of reality is the ridiculous creation of a "socialist mind" and that anyone who thinks otherwise is a common fool. Hardly.
Libertarians: Unbalanced & Deranged, 3/31/08, The commentary, "The Liberal Mind: The Psychological Causes of Political Madness," presents a laughable caricature of what it is to be liberal. Its dream: a grand, idealized libertarian, nightmarish, dystopia that creates hardships and inflicts wounds. This is dangerous, tragic, and sick.
Fascist "FreedomWorks", 3/20/08, "FreedomWorks" promotes the Alice-in-Wonderland idea that liberals and the "left" are fascists. Organizations like "FreedomWorks" are irrational to an extent that makes them, quite literally, insane. The root of that insanity is that they don't believe this: The whole is greater than the sum of the parts. This means that, at times, taking individually-logical actions can be collectively (for the whole) irrational. Tragic and dangerous.
The Invisible Hand, 3/25/08, This "invisible hand" is the core of what's known as "Economics 101."
Invisible Hand Drops Ball & Economics 101, 3/24/08, "Conservative" economic policies deliver dysfunctional results. They should have the courage to admit that's what they want.
Employment & Unemployment, 3/19/08, Unemployment is much greater than officially reported. Job growth has not kept up with population growth. US job growth has stopped.
Denver Post 'Trade' Deception, 3/3/08, The media doesn't allow the unbiased facts to be presented about what "free trade" is doing to our economy. It isn't in their corporate interest. "Free traders" talk about the glory of export growth, but not about the overwhelming growth of imports, the high-paying jobs lost, and the impact of those losses.
'Free Trade' and the Environment, 2/28/08, What's called "free trade" has enormous negative effects on the environment.
The Plunge Protection Team, 2/04/08, It manipulates U.S. markets. The economy & the dollar may possibly "hang on" through 2008 due to this market manipulation, but they will surely be allowed to collapse once a Democrat is elected.
Albert Einstein on Socialism, 1/24/08, Einstein reflects on capitalism, on socialism, on what he calls the "economic anarchy of capitalist society," and on what to do about it. I add comments.
Heresy, 1/24/08, The origin of the word, heresy, is "choice." That's not allowed.
'Cliff Oil', 7/10/06, They call it "peak oil," but the decline will feel more like "cliff oil."
John Edwards on 'Trade' - Why We Need Edwards for President, 1/18/08, Of the top three Democratic candidates John Edwards is the only one who understands the "trade" problem and has appropriate policies.
Are Poverty Wages for Ag Workers Necessary? No. 12/13/07, Corporations maintain agricultural workers must be paid poverty wages and therefore we "need" illegal immigrants to do this work because Americans won't. It's false. Pay could be 10X at a nominal increase in prices.
Beyond Six Sigma: Systems Thinking and Six Sigma Shortcomings, 11/30/07, Is it possible to go beyond Six Sigma? Well, yes. Use systems thinking.
Principles of Economic and Workforce Development, 11/29/07, A systems thinking perspective is necessary for understanding the dynamically complex challenges that face our organizations, our community, and our society.
The Death of the Middle Class, 11/3/07, Response to DLC Democrat Stephen J. Rose's WSJ commentary on "The Myth of Middle-Class Job Loss."
"The Problem is Bigger than the Loss of Manufacturing", 8/28/07, Contains updated charts on the U.S. "trade" deficit and Colorado jobs through July 2007 plus a summary of the main points on what to do about 'trade', taxes, and health insurance.
The 'Fair Tax', 8/21/07, The "Fair Tax" isn't. It would require a 56% sales tax to be revenue neutral promoting a hyperactive black market. It's class warfare with the primary goal of eliminating taxes on dividends and capital gains.
Market Failures: Health Insurance & TABOR
Website Traffic Increasing at a surprising rate.
Response to a Conservative on economics, 'trade' & jobs.
Populism, 'Trade' and Jobs recent data on 'trade' & jobs and the need for populism ... updated 8/28/07.
What's New?
Employment & Trade Papers
5/05/05
Presentation on "Offshoring and Trade" at the Magellan Center on 11/9/06 posted at The Trade Deficit and the Fallacy of Composition
Manufacturing Task Force material on "trade" and jobs: Manufacturing Task Force on Loss of Manufacturing 6/3/06, KZNT 1460: Business Initiative Show
Material covered in Labor Market 4/1/06, KZNT 1460: Business Initiative Show.
A report on The State of Colorado Employment. The job backlog as of Jun 05 is between 140,000 and 228,000 jobs. New data added showing Dec 05 U.S. job backlog and realistic measures of unemployment ... the "official" U-3 is a vast understatement.
The 5/5/05 Manufacturing Task Force presentation on The Trade Deficit and the Fallacy of Composition and the Magellan Center's Magellan Explorer magazine article: "Is Our Trade Deficit Sustainable: A Systems Thinking Perspective on Trade." Page updated on 5/4/06 showing the Advanced Technology Products trade balance trend and deficit associated with petroleum. Also added a link to a pdf of Warren Buffett's Fortune article on what to do about this.
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