|Source: Continuous Improvement Associates|
3/20/08 - added two graphs (not in doc or pdf above): Summary Notes: Irrational belief in the infallibility of the "free market" and "free trade" has led to devastating offshoring of good-paying manufacturing and IT jobs. This has undermined the US economy, leading to its collapse. The accompanying undermining of US wages is largely responsible for The 9/22/08 Economic Crisis ... collapsing demand has inevitably led to a collapsing economy. Yes, financial fraud and speculation precipitated the debacle, but the economy has become more and more unstable as U.S. wages have been systematically undermined. An example of what this has produced: Tent Cities in LA. Job Loss Data Summary: National, Colorado, Colorado Springs since their peaks.
3/20/08 - added two graphs (not in doc or pdf above):
Irrational belief in the infallibility of the "free market" and "free trade" has led to devastating offshoring of good-paying manufacturing and IT jobs. This has undermined the US economy, leading to its collapse. The accompanying undermining of US wages is largely responsible for The 9/22/08 Economic Crisis ... collapsing demand has inevitably led to a collapsing economy. Yes, financial fraud and speculation precipitated the debacle, but the economy has become more and more unstable as U.S. wages have been systematically undermined.
An example of what this has produced: Tent Cities in LA.
Job Loss Data Summary: National, Colorado, Colorado Springs since their peaks.
Comparison of Percentage of Manufacturing Jobs Lost
Comparison of Percentage of IT Jobs Lost
Woe is Colorado Springs.
US Job Growth has nowhere near kept up with Population Growth ... especially as jobs have been lost. The gap is over 10.3 million jobs. There are now 4.9 million fewer jobs than in Nov 07. Persons who have another job hold about 7.6 million existing jobs; that's 5.5% of employment (see the "multiple jobholders" graph at the bottom of Employment & Unemployment and BLS site for the latest).
Population increasing ... jobs dropping like a rock:
National Manufacturing Job Trend ... major resumption of downward trend since mid-06 ... now accelerating downward.
Here's a new graph, suggested by Paul Carson, showing average U.S. manufacturing jobs for each year along with 'trade-related' agreements. Note the downhill slide began in the 80s with the U.S. giving China Most Favored Nation status. But it really went over the cliff when the U.S. granted China Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR). That coincides with the real cliff in the loss of manufacturing jobs. A coincidence? I don't think so.
National IT Job Trend. Bummer, people who lost their manufacturing jobs retrained for these jobs. But somehow the US needs 65,000 H-1B visas to import workers because there's a shortage?
Colorado Manufacturing Job Trend ... also accelerating downward.
Colorado IT Job Trend ...
Colorado Springs Manufacturing Job Trend ... also accelerating downward ...
Colorado Springs IT Job Trend. Think about this about 50% of IT jobs lost from Colorado Springs. Read about this in the corporate media?
Colorado Non-Farm Jobs Trend. Colorado would need another 295,000 jobs to have kept up with population growth. Colorado's lost 48,000 jobs since Aug 08.
See the chart for jobs lost by month.
Added 3/19: note from Census Bureau and "trade" deficit history graph:
The "trade" deficit has declined somewhat in 2007 & 2008. This is indeed because the decrease in imports was more than the decrease in exports. That's because the U.S. economy is failing.
Note that NAFTA, China PNTR, and China into the WTO have been on the forefront of massive borrowing to support the "trade" deficit. The "trade" deficit was growing exponentially through 2006. It's no surprise that that's over; no exponential increase can be sustained.
Advanced Technology Products "Trade" Trend. This should be one of the most frightening trends of all. The U.S. is so proud of its technological prowess. However, most people are unaware of the rate at which we're losing it.
The U.S. had a $38.4B surplus in 1991. The ATP "trade" balance in 2008 was -$55.6B, a deficit much larger than the surplus in 1991.
This is the "progress" the U.S. has made thanks to the "free traders" that have undermined the U.S. economy?
We've been told that the US is going to let others (e.g., China) do the low-tech manufacturing and the US is going to retain high-tech manufacturing. So much for that; it's not true.
It should be no surprise that students aren't attracted to high-tech education. It's difficult subject matter ... and the jobs are going away.
Here's the monthly ATP trade balance trend since 2006 with a linear least-square fit showing the overall downward trend.
Over the last 3 months, note that the ATP balance is less negative by $5.9B. Why is that? It was because exports fell by $3.3B and imports fell by $9.2B; So the ATP balance wasn't improving because exports rose. It was because imports fell more than exports. That's because the U.S. economy is failing.
US Unemployment Rate - Official vs. Actual
While there's concern that the Official Unemployment Rate (U3) rose from 4.8% in Feb to now 8.1% (it was 7.6% in Jan), there should be even more concern. What I call the "Real Unemployment Rate" is 20.7%.
Don't dismiss this as absurd. John Williams (Shadow Government Statistics) has his SGS-Alternate Unemployment Rate at 19.1% ... my estimate isn't all that much different. From his March 6, 2009 Flash Update:
His Employment and Unemployment Reporting primer is educational.
My "Real Unemployment Rate" number includes those extra who are classified as "Not in labor force, but Persons who currently want a job" to the government's U6 statistic. It also adds those needed to keep up with population growth ... see the gap at the 4th figure from the top ... that's now 10.3 million persons.
For explanations of these numbers see Unemployment: Official, Effective, Real. For the real-life impact see There's no 'free market' for Labor. Ever wonder why the official poverty rate in America is between 12% and 13%? It's no coincidence.
The chart below shows changes in U-3 (official) unemployment in the data released in 2009. It compares the 2009 data with the 2008 data. Somehow the revisions showed unemployment is more than it was previously reported. Somehow revised upward through 2008 to show an additional 150 to 200 thousand more persons "officially" unemployed. Some previous downward fudging, now corrected as a "gift" for Obama?
Below is the Orwellian chart from the BLS showing that besides the "discouraged" and "other marginally attached" (note that marginally attached includes the "discouraged") there are many others (actually a lot more others) "who want a job" now. While there's a certain tortured logic to the BLS definition, I find it stunning that people who say they want a job now, but don't have one, aren't even considered part of the labor force. See the categories on the BLS site: "Not in labor force" and "Persons who currently want a job".
Here's the BLS chart from Labor Supply in a Tight Labor Market (Summary 00-13 June 2000):
Note that this measure was also revised upward with the data released in 2009.
US Unemployment Level - Official vs. Actual
There are now more like 37.1 million persons unemployed in Feb09 compared to the official U3 number of 12.5 million. None of this counts the underemployed. In 2006 there were 36.5 million people in poverty; no wonder.
In Job Centers See Crush of People in Need, NY Times, 11/23/08, there's this: "More than 20 million people are expected to use federal workforce services in 2008, up from 14 million in 2005." That should be no surprise based on real unemployment. Were the number of unemployed as indicated by the "official" U-3 number, there would have been only about 10 million needing help. The 20 million people needing federal workforce services is about that for the green data series above that includes other categories the official unemployment number doesn't count as "official."
© 2003 Continuous Improvement Associates
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